Tennis · US Open Women · 24/08, 21:30
Prediction: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Himeno Sakatsume
Team pages: Himeno Sakatsume
Prediction summary
Winner
Jazmin Ortenzi
Himeno Sakatsume
Estimated games
22.5Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jazmin Ortenzi
5-5 (W-L)
Himeno Sakatsume
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jazmin Ortenzi 1479 · Himeno Sakatsume 1470
| Jazmin Ortenzi | Himeno Sakatsume | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jazmin Ortenzi dominates on serve: 10.1 aces and 53.1% break avg.
Statistics
| Jazmin Ortenzi | Himeno Sakatsume | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-12 | 10.7-12.3 |
| Aces | 10.1 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 54.5% | 58.5% |
| Break % | 53.1% | 57% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +3
Over 19.5: 70% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 30% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jazmin Ortenzi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Katherine Sebov Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 18/06 | Elizara Yaneva WTA Brescia · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Francesca Pace WTA Brescia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Viola Turini WTA Modena · Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 04/06 | Marta Lombardini W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Beatrice Ricci W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/05 | Alina Korneeva French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 18/05 | Arantxa Rus French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 09/05 | Kristina Liutova W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Himeno Sakatsume
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Mai Hontama WTA Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Ariana Arseneault WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Hong Yi Cody Wong WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 22/07 | Fiona Crawley W100 Evansville |
1-2 | 9-17 | L |
| 23/06 | Fiona Crawley Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/06 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Alicia Dudeney WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Mika Stojsavljevic WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jazmin Ortenzi vs Himeno Sakatsume?
Our model gives 68% to Himeno Sakatsume, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.