Prediction: Keegan Smith vs Alexis Galarneau
Team pages: Keegan Smith · Alexis Galarneau
Prediction summary
Winner
Keegan Smith
Alexis Galarneau
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Keegan Smith
6-4 (W-L)
Alexis Galarneau
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keegan Smith 1528 · Alexis Galarneau 1512
| Keegan Smith | Alexis Galarneau | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Keegan Smith dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 43.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Keegan Smith | Alexis Galarneau | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-11.1 | 12.6-11.7 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 43.6% | 56.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 51% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 49% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keegan Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Paul Inchauspe Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 22/07 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Digvijay Pratap Singh Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Niels McDonald Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Alexis Galarneau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Dino Prizmic Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Vit Kopriva ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 14/07 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 10/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Adrian Mannarino Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 08/07 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keegan Smith vs Alexis Galarneau?
Our model gives 54% to Alexis Galarneau, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.