Prediction: Stefano Napolitano vs Mackenzie McDonald
Team pages: Stefano Napolitano · Mackenzie McDonald
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefano Napolitano
Mackenzie McDonald
Estimated games
23.5Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Stefano Napolitano
5-5 (W-L)
Mackenzie McDonald
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefano Napolitano 1486 · Mackenzie McDonald 1461
| Stefano Napolitano | Mackenzie McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Mackenzie McDonald dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 42.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Stefano Napolitano | Mackenzie McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-12.1 | 12.5-13 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 71.2% |
| Break % | 37.6% | 42.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +3
Over 20.5: 70% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 30% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefano Napolitano
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Ugo Blanchet Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 27/07 | Alexandre Muller Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Alex Barrena Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 13/07 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Billy Harris Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 30/05 | Edward Winter Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 29/05 | Philip Henning Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/05 | Alec Beckley Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Mackenzie McDonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Yibing Wu ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Alex Michelsen ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Edas Butvilas ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Patrick Kypson Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 25/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefano Napolitano vs Mackenzie McDonald?
Our model gives 63% to Mackenzie McDonald, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.