Prediction: Spencer Johnson vs Cristian Garin
Team pages: Spencer Johnson
Prediction summary
Winner
Spencer Johnson
Cristian Garin
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Spencer Johnson
7-3 (W-L)
Cristian Garin
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spencer Johnson 1570 · Cristian Garin 1465
| Spencer Johnson | Cristian Garin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spencer Johnson (rating 1570 vs 1465).
- Spencer Johnson dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 40.6% break avg.
- Spencer Johnson is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Spencer Johnson | Cristian Garin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.3-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-10.2 | 13.6-13.3 |
| Aces | 7.4 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 75.9% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 40.6% | 37.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 49% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 51% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spencer Johnson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 07/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Moez Echargui Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/08 | Ryan Colby Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 02/08 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Coleman Wong Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 18/07 | Coleman Wong Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Cristian Garin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05 | Learner Tien French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 8-20 | L |
| 16/05 | Henri Squire ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 09/05 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/05 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 05/05 | Jan Choinski ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 04/05 | Moez Echargui ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/04 | Nuno Borges Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 28/04 | Moez Echargui Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 23/04 | Alexander Blockx ATP Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spencer Johnson vs Cristian Garin?
Our model gives 63% to Spencer Johnson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.