Tennis · US Open · 24/08, 21:30

Prediction: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill

Team pages: Francesco Passaro · Felix Gill

Prediction summary
Winner
48% 52%
Francesco Passaro Felix Gill
Estimated games
24.7Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Passaro 5-5 (W-L)
WLWWLWLLWL
Felix Gill 5-5 (W-L)
WLLLLWWWLW
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Francesco Passaro 1474 · Felix Gill 1485
Francesco PassaroFelix Gill
Our model48%52%
Market49%51%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Statistics

Francesco PassaroFelix Gill
Win %40%40%
Win % · Clay 40% (10)
Sets (G-P)1-1.41.1-1.6
Games (G-P)11.1-12.313.4-14.1
Aces3.15.1
Double faults2.71.6
1st serve %69.6%71.5%
Break %38.7%30.8%
Estimated total games (ours) 24.7 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.2
Over 23.5: 58% · 1.83 Under 23.5: 42% · 1.83

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Francesco Passaro

LLWWL

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Date Opponent Sets Games Res.
14/08 Nicolas Kicker
Challenger Todi · Clay
0-2 5-12 L
13/08 Oriol Roca Batalla
Challenger Todi · Clay
2-0 12-5 W
11/08 Carlo Alberto Caniato
Challenger Todi · Clay
2-1 16-14 W
27/07 Jan Choinski
Challenger Bonn · Clay
0-2 7-12 L
21/07 Dominic Stephan Stricker
Challenger Zug · Clay
1-2 14-19 L
13/07 Martin Krumich
ATP Bastad · Clay
0-2 7-12 L
12/07 Maks Kasnikowski
ATP Bastad · Clay
2-1 15-10 W
08/07 Henri Squire
Challenger Trieste · Clay
1-2 16-18 L
01/07 Enrico Dalla Valle
Challenger Milan · Clay
0-2 6-12 L
30/06 Daniel Michalski
Challenger Milan · Clay
2-0 13-9 W

Felix Gill

WWLLW

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Date Opponent Sets Games Res.
13/08 Colton Smith
Challenger Brownsburg · Hard
2-1 18-14 W
03/08 Borna Gojo
Challenger Lexington · Hard
1-2 14-16 L
10/07 Max Basing
Challenger Nottingham · Grass
1-2 15-15 L
09/07 Filip Jeff Planinsek
Challenger Nottingham · Grass
2-0 12-4 W
07/07 William Jansen
Challenger Nottingham · Grass
2-1 18-15 W
29/06 Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon · Grass
0-3 11-19 L
24/06 Jan Choinski
ATP Eastbourne · Grass
1-2 13-18 L
20/06 Marco Trungelliti
ATP Eastbourne · Grass
0-2 9-13 L
17/06 Otto Virtanen
Challenger Nottingham · Grass
0-2 5-12 L
16/06 Hugo Gaston
Challenger Nottingham · Grass
2-1 19-15 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill?

Our model gives 52% to Felix Gill, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.