Prediction: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide
Team pages: Joel Schwaerzler · Gustavo Heide
Prediction summary
Winner
Joel Schwaerzler
Gustavo Heide
Estimated games
22.1Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Joel Schwaerzler
5-5 (W-L)
Gustavo Heide
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joel Schwaerzler 1485 · Gustavo Heide 1507
| Joel Schwaerzler | Gustavo Heide | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Gustavo Heide makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Joel Schwaerzler | Gustavo Heide | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (3) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-11.8 | 9.5-10.8 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 74.3% | 69.9% |
| Break % | 42.8% | 21.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1.4
Over 23.5: 40% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 60% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joel Schwaerzler
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Kenta Miyoshi Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 09/08 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/08 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 07/08 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 04/08 | Jiri Cizek Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Martin Krumich Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/07 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Gustavo Heide
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Harold Mayot Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Luca Van Assche ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Kilian Feldbausch ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 07/07 | David Poljak Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Alex Barrena Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Federico Agustin Gomez Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide?
Our model gives 51% to Gustavo Heide, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.