Prediction: Andrea Guerrieri vs August Holmgren
Team pages: Andrea Guerrieri · August Holmgren
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrea Guerrieri
August Holmgren
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Andrea Guerrieri
4-6 (W-L)
August Holmgren
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Guerrieri 1536 · August Holmgren 1515
| Andrea Guerrieri | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: August Holmgren makes many double faults (7.3/match).
Statistics
| Andrea Guerrieri | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-11.2 | 14.2-13.7 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 9.9 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 7.3 |
| 1st serve % | 66% | 78.6% |
| Break % | 35.6% | 27.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.9
Over 22.5: 56% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 44% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Guerrieri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Alexander Donski Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 09/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
| 07/08 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 04/08 | Olle Wallin Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/07 | Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/07 | Luca Nardi ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
August Holmgren
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 22/07 | Garrett Johns Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 19/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Justin Boulais Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 08/07 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Jerome Kym Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Liam Broady Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Guerrieri vs August Holmgren?
Our model gives 53% to August Holmgren, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.