Prediction: Toby Samuel vs Francesco Maestrelli
Team pages: Toby Samuel · Francesco Maestrelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Toby Samuel
Francesco Maestrelli
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Toby Samuel
9-1 (W-L)
Francesco Maestrelli
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toby Samuel 1573 · Francesco Maestrelli 1411
| Toby Samuel | Francesco Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 28% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toby Samuel (rating 1573 vs 1411).
- Francesco Maestrelli dominates on serve: 12.4 aces and 44.4% break avg.
- Toby Samuel is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Toby Samuel makes many double faults (4/match).
- Note: Francesco Maestrelli makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Toby Samuel | Francesco Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 10% |
| Win % · Hard | 86% (7) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 0.8-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-9.6 | 12.5-14.4 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 12.4 |
| Double faults | 4 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 41.6% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.9
Over 21.5: 63% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 37% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toby Samuel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 21/07 | Mikael Arseneault Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/06 | Jakub Mensik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 26/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 25/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Francesco Maestrelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Alexei Popyrin Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 28/07 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/06 | Arthur Gea Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 26/05 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 20/05 | Roberto Carballes Baena French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toby Samuel vs Francesco Maestrelli?
Our model gives 74% to Toby Samuel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.