Tennis · US Open Women · 24/08, 20:00
Prediction: Claire Liu vs Heather Watson
Team pages: Claire Liu · Heather Watson
Prediction summary
Winner
Claire Liu
Heather Watson
Estimated games
23Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Claire Liu
5-5 (W-L)
Heather Watson
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Claire Liu
1–1
Heather Watson
(2 last)
- 04 Apr2-0 12-6W
- 01 Aug1-2 14-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Claire Liu 1537 · Heather Watson 1493
| Claire Liu | Heather Watson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Claire Liu (rating 1537 vs 1493).
- Note: Heather Watson makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Claire Liu | Heather Watson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 75% (4) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-10.4 | 11.7-12 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 5.3 |
| 1st serve % | 64.3% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 56.5% | 46.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.5
Over 21.5: 61% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 39% · 1.83
H2H · Claire Liu 1 – 1 Heather Watson (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Claire Liu 1–1 Heather Watson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/22 WTA Charleston | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/08/18 WTA San Jose | 1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Claire Liu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Sinja Kraus WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Polina Iatcenko WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/07 | Ipek Oz WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/07 | Maria Sara Popa WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/07 | Sinja Kraus WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Zeynep Sonmez Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/06 | Hanne Vandewinkel Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Elena Pridankina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
Heather Watson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Anna Blinkova WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Julieta Pareja WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 25/07 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Maria Timofeeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 24/06 | Tatiana Prozorova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 23/06 | Mayar Sherif Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/06 | Shuai Zhang WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Beatriz Haddad Maia WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 30/05 | Viktoria Hruncakova WTA Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 08/05 | Xiaodi You WTA Jiujiang · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Claire Liu vs Heather Watson?
Our model gives 60% to Claire Liu, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.