Prediction: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas
Team pages: Luka Pavlovic · Juan Pablo Varillas
Prediction summary
Winner
Luka Pavlovic
Juan Pablo Varillas
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luka Pavlovic
4-6 (W-L)
Juan Pablo Varillas
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luka Pavlovic
1–0
Juan Pablo Varillas
(1 last)
- 12 Apr2-1 12-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luka Pavlovic 1535 · Juan Pablo Varillas 1560
| Luka Pavlovic | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Luka Pavlovic dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 45.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Luka Pavlovic 1–0 Juan Pablo Varillas (1).
Statistics
| Luka Pavlovic | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (3) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-10.7 | 13-11.8 |
| Aces | 7.7 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 78% | 68% |
| Break % | 45.7% | 51.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.7
Over 22.5: 55% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 45% · 1.72
H2H · Luka Pavlovic 1 – 0 Juan Pablo Varillas (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luka Pavlovic 1–0 Juan Pablo Varillas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/25 Challenger Mexico City | 2-1 | 12-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/07 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Yanki Erel Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Juan Pablo Varillas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Mili Poljicak Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Timofey Skatov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/07 | Francesco Forti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 26/07 | Stefan Latinov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/07 | Alexander Donski Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/07 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 11/07 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 10/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas?
Our model gives 60% to Luka Pavlovic, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.