Tennis · US Open Women · 24/08, 17:00
Prediction: Darja Semenistaja vs Hayu Kinoshita
Team pages: Darja Semenistaja · Hayu Kinoshita
Prediction summary
Winner
Darja Semenistaja
Hayu Kinoshita
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Darja Semenistaja
3-7 (W-L)
Hayu Kinoshita
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Darja Semenistaja 1461 · Hayu Kinoshita 1441
| Darja Semenistaja | Hayu Kinoshita | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Darja Semenistaja | Hayu Kinoshita | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 30% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (4) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.8 | 0.7-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-14.2 | 8.6-10.6 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 55.1% | 53.3% |
| Break % | 34.5% | 50.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 52% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 48% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Darja Semenistaja
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Denislava Glushkova W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 28/07 | Mia Ristic WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Sinja Kraus WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/07 | Julia Riera WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 06/07 | Leyre Romero Gormaz WTA Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 29/06 | Antonia Ruzic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 25/06 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Nao Hibino Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 23/06 | Anna Siskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 10/06 | Laura Samsonova WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Hayu Kinoshita
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Kyoka Okamura WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Elvina Kalieva W100 Evansville |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Sakura Hosogi W75 Granby |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Iryna Shymanovich WTA Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Mariam Bolkvadze Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Viktoriya Tomova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Viktoria Hruncakova WTA Figueira da Foz · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 22/05 | Valentina Ryser W100 Takasaki · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/05 | Sara Saito W100 Takasaki · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Darja Semenistaja vs Hayu Kinoshita?
Our model gives 57% to Darja Semenistaja, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.