Tennis · US Open Women · 24/08, 17:00
Prediction: Francesca Jones vs Nuria Brancaccio
Team pages: Francesca Jones · Nuria Brancaccio
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesca Jones
Nuria Brancaccio
Estimated games
21.6Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Francesca Jones
8-2 (W-L)
Nuria Brancaccio
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesca Jones 1653 · Nuria Brancaccio 1565
| Francesca Jones | Nuria Brancaccio | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francesca Jones (rating 1653 vs 1565).
- Francesca Jones is in better form: 100% recent wins.
Statistics
| Francesca Jones | Nuria Brancaccio | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 100% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (10) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.4 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-6.9 | 12.2-10.3 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.4% | 60.4% |
| Break % | 62.3% | 59.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +2.1
Over 19.5: 65% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 35% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesca Jones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Alice Rame WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/07 | Lucija Ciric Bagaric WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/07 | Chloe Paquet WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Fiona Ferro WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 25/07 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/07 | Jennifer Ruggeri WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 23/07 | Miriam Bulgaru WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Darya Astakhova WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/07 | Martina Trevisan WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 14-8 | W |
Nuria Brancaccio
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Barbora Palicova W75 Hechingen |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Nastasja Schunk W75 Hechingen |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 29/07 | Cagla Buyukakcay W75 Hechingen |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 25/07 | Mia Ristic W75 Cordenons |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Martina Trevisan W75 Cordenons |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 23/07 | Carlota Martinez Cirez W75 Cordenons |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Martina Colmegna W75 Cordenons |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/07 | Laura Hietaranta W75 Cordenons |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 18/07 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 17/07 | Julia Riera WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesca Jones vs Nuria Brancaccio?
Our model gives 74% to Francesca Jones, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.