Tennis · US Open Women · 24/08, 17:00
Prediction: Moyuka Uchijima vs Polona Hercog
Team pages: Moyuka Uchijima · Polona Hercog
Prediction summary
Winner
Moyuka Uchijima
Polona Hercog
Estimated games
22.1Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Moyuka Uchijima
3-7 (W-L)
Polona Hercog
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Moyuka Uchijima 1478 · Polona Hercog 1515
| Moyuka Uchijima | Polona Hercog | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Moyuka Uchijima makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Moyuka Uchijima | Polona Hercog | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (3) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-11.9 | 10.4-10.2 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 4.9 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 66.4% | 60.9% |
| Break % | 48.9% | 52.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +2.6
Over 19.5: 67% · 1.80
Under 19.5: 33% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moyuka Uchijima
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Harriet Dart WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Cristina Bucsa WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/08 | Himeno Sakatsume WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/07 | Maddison Inglis WTA Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 29/07 | Hayu Kinoshita WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 29/07 | Miho Kuramochi WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/07 | Anna Bondar WTA Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Elina Avanesyan WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Irene Burillo Escorihuela WTA Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
Polona Hercog
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Laura Pigossi W100 Gran Canaria |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Dalila Jakupovic WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 23/06 | Bianca Andreescu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Kajsa Rinaldo Persson W75 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Ayla Aksu W75 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/05 | Lucrezia Stefanini W75 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/05 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo W35 Platja d'Aro · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Miriana Tona W35 Platja d'Aro · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/05 | Lucia Natal W35 Platja d'Aro · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 01/05 | Xiyu Wang WTA Huzhou · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moyuka Uchijima vs Polona Hercog?
Our model gives 65% to Moyuka Uchijima, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.