Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 23/08, 22:30
Prediction: Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe
Team pages: Arthur Fils · Frances Tiafoe
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Fils
Frances Tiafoe
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Fils
8-2 (W-L)
Frances Tiafoe
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Arthur Fils
1–0
Frances Tiafoe
(1 last)
- 24 Mar2-1 18-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Fils 1595 · Frances Tiafoe 1588
| Arthur Fils | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Frances Tiafoe dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 54.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Arthur Fils 1–0 Frances Tiafoe (1).
Statistics
| Arthur Fils | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 86% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 2.1-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-8.7 | 17-13.4 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 78.4% | 79.7% |
| Break % | 45.8% | 54.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.6
Over 22.5: 61% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 39% · 1.90
H2H · Arthur Fils 1 – 0 Frances Tiafoe (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arthur Fils 1–0 Frances Tiafoe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03/25 ATP Miami | 2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Fils
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 16/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Zachary Svajda ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 28/07 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frances Tiafoe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 28/07 | Terence Atmane ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 04/07 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 02/07 | Jan Choinski Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 01/07 | Terence Atmane Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model gives 59% to Arthur Fils, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.