Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 22/08, 17:00
Prediction: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fils
Team pages: Flavio Cobolli · Arthur Fils
Prediction summary
Winner
Flavio Cobolli
Arthur Fils
Estimated games
25.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Flavio Cobolli
4-6 (W-L)
Arthur Fils
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Flavio Cobolli
0–1
Arthur Fils
(1 last)
- 09 Apr0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Flavio Cobolli 1551 · Arthur Fils 1578
| Flavio Cobolli | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Arthur Fils dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 40% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Flavio Cobolli 0–1 Arthur Fils (1).
Statistics
| Flavio Cobolli | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.4 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.1-15.5 | 13.1-10.2 |
| Aces | 8.2 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 77.9% |
| Break % | 38.2% | 40% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3.7
Over 21.5: 74% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 26% · 2.00
H2H · Flavio Cobolli 0 – 1 Arthur Fils (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Flavio Cobolli 0–1 Arthur Fils
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/25 ATP Monte Carlo | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Flavio Cobolli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 19/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Alexander Blockx ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 15/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 06/07 | Alex De Minaur Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Karen Khachanov Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 02/07 | James Duckworth Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
Arthur Fils
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 16/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Zachary Svajda ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 28/07 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-22 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fils?
Our model gives 64% to Arthur Fils, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.