Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 20/08, 21:00
Prediction: Tommy Paul vs Flavio Cobolli
Team pages: Tommy Paul · Flavio Cobolli
Prediction summary
Winner
Tommy Paul
Flavio Cobolli
Estimated games
27.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tommy Paul
6-4 (W-L)
Flavio Cobolli
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tommy Paul
0–1
Flavio Cobolli
(1 last)
- 12 Aug1-2 13-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tommy Paul 1537 · Flavio Cobolli 1542
| Tommy Paul | Flavio Cobolli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 8 aces and 46.4% break avg.
- Flavio Cobolli dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 41.5% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Tommy Paul 0–1 Flavio Cobolli (1).
Statistics
| Tommy Paul | Flavio Cobolli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.2 | 1.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.9-13.6 | 16.8-16.3 |
| Aces | 8 | 8.4 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 73.5% | 71.4% |
| Break % | 46.4% | 41.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +5
Over 22.5: 81% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 19% · 1.90
H2H · Tommy Paul 0 – 1 Flavio Cobolli (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tommy Paul 0–1 Flavio Cobolli
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/24 ATP Cincinnati | 1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tommy Paul
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 18/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 15/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 03/07 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 01/07 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 29/06 | Alexandre Muller Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 21/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Flavio Cobolli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Alexander Blockx ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 15/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 06/07 | Alex De Minaur Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Karen Khachanov Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 02/07 | James Duckworth Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 01/07 | Mariano Navone Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 21-21 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tommy Paul vs Flavio Cobolli?
Our model gives 55% to Tommy Paul, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.