Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 23/08, 00:00
Prediction: Brandon Nakashima vs Frances Tiafoe
Team pages: Brandon Nakashima · Frances Tiafoe
Prediction summary
Winner
Brandon Nakashima
Frances Tiafoe
Estimated games
25.7Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Brandon Nakashima
7-3 (W-L)
Frances Tiafoe
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Brandon Nakashima
1–7
Frances Tiafoe
(8 last)
- 28 Feb1-2 16-16L
- 06 Apr0-2 10-13L
- 26 Sept2-0 13-8W
- 30 Jul0-2 6-12L
- 26 Mar1-2 16-16L
- 14 Mar0-2 8-12L
- 17 Mar1-2 17-19L
- 07 Feb1-2 17-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brandon Nakashima 1604 · Frances Tiafoe 1596
| Brandon Nakashima | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Frances Tiafoe dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 52.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Brandon Nakashima 1–7 Frances Tiafoe (8).
Statistics
| Brandon Nakashima | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 2.1-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.9-11.1 | 16.9-13.4 |
| Aces | 11.3 | 7.5 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 82.5% | 81% |
| Break % | 34.5% | 52.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.7 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +1.2
Over 24.5: 59% · 1.80
Under 24.5: 41% · 1.90
H2H · Brandon Nakashima 1 – 7 Frances Tiafoe (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brandon Nakashima 1–7 Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 ATP Acapulco | 1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 06/04/25 ATP Houston | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/09/24 ATP Tokyo | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/07/22 ATP Atlanta | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/03/22 ATP Miami | 1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 14/03/22 ATP Indian Wells | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 17/03/21 ATP Acapulco | 1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 07/02/20 Challenger Dallas | 1-2 | 17-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brandon Nakashima
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 18/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 16/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 07/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 28/07 | Terence Atmane ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 04/07 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 02/07 | Jan Choinski Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 01/07 | Terence Atmane Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 21/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brandon Nakashima vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model gives 52% to Brandon Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.