Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 21/08, 17:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe
Team pages: Lorenzo Musetti · Frances Tiafoe
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Musetti
Frances Tiafoe
Estimated games
23.6Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Musetti
8-2 (W-L)
Frances Tiafoe
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lorenzo Musetti
4–3
Frances Tiafoe
(7 last)
- 03 Jun3-1 23-15W
- 15 Aug0-2 5-12L
- 16 Jun1-2 15-19L
- 15 May2-1 17-14W
- 18 Mar2-1 15-15W
- 07 Oct1-2 12-15L
- 23 Sept2-1 17-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Musetti 1557 · Frances Tiafoe 1573
| Lorenzo Musetti | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Frances Tiafoe dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 58.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Lorenzo Musetti 4–3 Frances Tiafoe (7).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Musetti | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 2.1-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-9.3 | 16.7-12.7 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 68.6% | 79.8% |
| Break % | 45% | 58.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 51% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 49% · 1.83
H2H · Lorenzo Musetti 4 – 3 Frances Tiafoe (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorenzo Musetti 4–3 Frances Tiafoe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/25 French Open | 3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 15/08/24 ATP Cincinnati | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06/23 ATP Stuttgart | 1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 15/05/23 ATP Rome | 2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/03/21 ATP Acapulco | 2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 07/10/20 Challenger Parma | 1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 23/09/20 Challenger Forli | 2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 12/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/05 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 28/07 | Terence Atmane ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 04/07 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 02/07 | Jan Choinski Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 01/07 | Terence Atmane Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 21/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model gives 52% to Lorenzo Musetti, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.