Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 20/08, 02:30
Prediction: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger Aliassime
Team pages: Frances Tiafoe · Felix Auger Aliassime
Prediction summary
Winner
Frances Tiafoe
Felix Auger Aliassime
Estimated games
29.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Frances Tiafoe
7-3 (W-L)
Felix Auger Aliassime
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Frances Tiafoe
1–3
Felix Auger Aliassime
(4 last)
- 19 Jun2-1 16-15W
- 04 Nov0-2 5-12L
- 22 Apr0-2 9-13L
- 06 Sept1-3 18-23L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Frances Tiafoe 1579 · Felix Auger Aliassime 1573
| Frances Tiafoe | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Frances Tiafoe dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 56.3% break avg.
- Felix Auger Aliassime dominates on serve: 16.5 aces and 51.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Frances Tiafoe 1–3 Felix Auger Aliassime (4).
Statistics
| Frances Tiafoe | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 83% (6) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.1-1 | 2.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.1-13.5 | 19.2-14.4 |
| Aces | 7.7 | 16.5 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 79.7% | 83.4% |
| Break % | 56.3% | 51.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
29.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +6.6
Over 22.5: 88% · 1.72
Under 22.5: 12% · 2.00
H2H · Frances Tiafoe 1 – 3 Felix Auger Aliassime (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Frances Tiafoe 1–3 Felix Auger Aliassime
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/26 ATP Halle | 2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 04/11/22 ATP Paris | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/04/22 ATP Barcelona | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/09/21 US Open | 1-3 | 18-23 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 28/07 | Terence Atmane ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 04/07 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 02/07 | Jan Choinski Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 01/07 | Terence Atmane Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 21/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Felix Auger Aliassime
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 28-29 | L |
| 05/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-24 | W |
| 03/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Dino Prizmic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Learner Tien ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 15/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger Aliassime?
Our model gives 57% to Felix Auger Aliassime, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.