Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 19/08, 23:00
Prediction: Jaime Faria vs Lorenzo Musetti
Team pages: Jaime Faria · Lorenzo Musetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Jaime Faria
Lorenzo Musetti
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jaime Faria
8-2 (W-L)
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jaime Faria 1572 · Lorenzo Musetti 1545
| Jaime Faria | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jaime Faria dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 42.8% break avg.
- Note: Jaime Faria makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Jaime Faria | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-10.4 | 10.7-9.8 |
| Aces | 7.7 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 5.5 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 72.2% | 67.4% |
| Break % | 42.8% | 35% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.7
Over 21.5: 55% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 45% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jaime Faria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Adam Walton ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 17/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/08 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Yibing Wu ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 23/07 | Gonzalo Bueno ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 12/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/05 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/04 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jaime Faria vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Our model gives 57% to Lorenzo Musetti, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.