Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 19/08, 17:00
Prediction: Arthur Fils vs Alex De Minaur
Team pages: Arthur Fils · Alex De Minaur
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Fils
Alex De Minaur
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Fils
6-4 (W-L)
Alex De Minaur
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Arthur Fils
1–2
Alex De Minaur
(3 last)
- 10 Feb0-2 8-13L
- 08 Jul1-3 15-22L
- 18 Apr2-0 13-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Fils 1537 · Alex De Minaur 1568
| Arthur Fils | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Arthur Fils 1–2 Alex De Minaur (3).
- Note: Alex De Minaur makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Arthur Fils | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.7-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-11.1 | 14.7-12.5 |
| Aces | 7 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 77.3% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 36.4% | 44.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.2
Over 22.5: 58% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 42% · 1.90
H2H · Arthur Fils 1 – 2 Alex De Minaur (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arthur Fils 1–2 Alex De Minaur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/26 ATP Rotterdam | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 08/07/24 Wimbledon | 1-3 | 15-22 | L |
| 18/04/24 ATP Barcelona | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Fils
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 16/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Zachary Svajda ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 28/07 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-22 | L |
| 30/06 | Raphael Collignon Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 01/05 | Jannik Sinner ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Alex De Minaur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/08 | Quentin Halys ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 06/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 05/08 | James Duckworth ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 06/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 04/07 | Zachary Svajda Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Adrian Mannarino Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Fils vs Alex De Minaur?
Our model gives 54% to Arthur Fils, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.