Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 19/08, 19:00
Prediction: Rafael Jodar vs Flavio Cobolli
Team pages: Rafael Jodar · Flavio Cobolli
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Jodar
Flavio Cobolli
Estimated games
25.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Jodar
5-5 (W-L)
Flavio Cobolli
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1600 · Flavio Cobolli 1529
| Rafael Jodar | Flavio Cobolli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rafael Jodar (rating 1600 vs 1529).
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Flavio Cobolli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.6-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-10.3 | 15.9-16.1 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 8.5 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 72.9% | 72.1% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 36.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3.9
Over 21.5: 76% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 24% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 13/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Corentin Moutet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 03/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 01/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
Flavio Cobolli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Alexander Blockx ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 15/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 06/07 | Alex De Minaur Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Karen Khachanov Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 02/07 | James Duckworth Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 01/07 | Mariano Navone Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 21-21 | W |
| 15/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Jodar vs Flavio Cobolli?
Our model gives 67% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.