Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 19/08, 17:00
Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul
Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Tommy Paul
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Zverev
Tommy Paul
Estimated games
28.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Zverev
9-1 (W-L)
Tommy Paul
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Zverev
1–2
Tommy Paul
(3 last)
- 21 Jan3-1 22-19W
- 14 Mar1-2 14-17L
- 27 Feb0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1584 · Tommy Paul 1530
| Alexander Zverev | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Zverev (rating 1584 vs 1530).
- Alexander Zverev dominates on serve: 13.5 aces and 44.3% break avg.
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 46.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev 1–2 Tommy Paul (3).
Statistics
| Alexander Zverev | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 86% (7) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.4-0.8 | 1.6-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.6-15.5 | 14.4-12.6 |
| Aces | 13.5 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 79.5% | 73.3% |
| Break % | 44.3% | 46.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +6
Over 22.5: 85% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 15% · 1.83
H2H · Alexander Zverev 1 – 2 Tommy Paul (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Zverev 1–2 Tommy Paul
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/25 Australian Open | 3-1 | 22-19 | W |
| 14/03/22 ATP Indian Wells | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 27/02/20 ATP Acapulco | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Zverev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 05/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 12/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 10/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-21 | W |
| 04/07 | Marcos Giron Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Valentin Royer Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Alexander Blockx Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 26-23 | W |
Tommy Paul
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 15/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 03/07 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 01/07 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 29/06 | Alexandre Muller Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 21/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 20/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul?
Our model gives 62% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.