Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 18/08, 17:00
Prediction: Learner Tien vs Frances Tiafoe
Team pages: Learner Tien · Frances Tiafoe
Prediction summary
Winner
Learner Tien
Frances Tiafoe
Estimated games
25.7Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Learner Tien
8-2 (W-L)
Frances Tiafoe
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Learner Tien
1–1
Frances Tiafoe
(2 last)
- 21 Feb2-1 17-17W
- 28 Aug0-3 8-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Learner Tien 1561 · Frances Tiafoe 1546
| Learner Tien | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Frances Tiafoe dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 51.3% break avg.
Statistics
| Learner Tien | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 2.1-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-12.4 | 16.8-13 |
| Aces | 4 | 7.2 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 68.8% | 80.2% |
| Break % | 35.9% | 51.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.7 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +2.2
Over 23.5: 65% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 35% · 1.80
H2H · Learner Tien 1 – 1 Frances Tiafoe (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Learner Tien 1–1 Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 ATP Delray Beach | 2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 28/08/23 US Open | 0-3 | 8-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Learner Tien
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/08 | Gael Monfils ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 28/07 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Marton Fucsovics Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 29/06 | Dalibor Svrcina Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 28/07 | Terence Atmane ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 04/07 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 02/07 | Jan Choinski Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 01/07 | Terence Atmane Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 21/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Learner Tien vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model gives 56% to Learner Tien, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.