Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 18/08, 17:00
Prediction: Taylor Fritz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
Team pages: Taylor Fritz · Daniel Merida Aguilar
Prediction summary
Winner
Taylor Fritz
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Taylor Fritz
7-3 (W-L)
Daniel Merida Aguilar
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Taylor Fritz 1586 · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1573
| Taylor Fritz | Daniel Merida Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Taylor Fritz dominates on serve: 12 aces and 42.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Taylor Fritz | Daniel Merida Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 86% (7) | 86% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.8 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-12 | 13-9.2 |
| Aces | 12 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 80.2% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 52.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.5
Over 21.5: 67% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 33% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Taylor Fritz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 31/07 | Alex Michelsen ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/07 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/07 | Zizou Bergs ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Alexander Zverev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 06/07 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Lorenzo Sonego Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Ugo Humbert ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Liam Draxl ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 17/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Taylor Fritz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar?
Our model gives 65% to Taylor Fritz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.