Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 18/08, 17:00
Prediction: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Felix Auger Aliassime
Team pages: Juan Manuel Cerundolo · Felix Auger Aliassime
Prediction summary
Winner
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Felix Auger Aliassime
Estimated games
27.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
3-7 (W-L)
Felix Auger Aliassime
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
1–0
Felix Auger Aliassime
(1 last)
- 25 Apr2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1537 · Felix Auger Aliassime 1555
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Felix Auger Aliassime dominates on serve: 16.5 aces and 45.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1–0 Felix Auger Aliassime (1).
Statistics
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 0% (1) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 2.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-13 | 18.6-15 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 16.5 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 76.7% | 82.1% |
| Break % | 36.8% | 45.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.8 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +6.3
Over 21.5: 86% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 14% · 1.80
H2H · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1 – 0 Felix Auger Aliassime (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1–0 Felix Auger Aliassime
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/25 ATP Madrid | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 14/08 | Mark Lajal ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/08 | Casper Ruud ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Casper Ruud ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 16/07 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 14/07 | Zdenek Kolar ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
Felix Auger Aliassime
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 28-29 | L |
| 05/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-24 | W |
| 03/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Dino Prizmic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Learner Tien ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 15/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Felix Auger Aliassime?
Our model gives 68% to Felix Auger Aliassime, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.