Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 18/08, 17:00
Prediction: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev
Team pages: Brandon Nakashima · Daniil Medvedev
Prediction summary
Winner
Brandon Nakashima
Daniil Medvedev
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Brandon Nakashima
7-3 (W-L)
Daniil Medvedev
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Brandon Nakashima
0–3
Daniil Medvedev
(3 last)
- 11 Jan0-2 8-13L
- 29 Apr1-2 11-15L
- 11 Mar0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brandon Nakashima 1583 · Daniil Medvedev 1536
| Brandon Nakashima | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brandon Nakashima (rating 1583 vs 1536).
- Daniil Medvedev dominates on serve: 8 aces and 44.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Brandon Nakashima 0–3 Daniil Medvedev (3).
- Note: Daniil Medvedev makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Brandon Nakashima | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-11 | 14-12.1 |
| Aces | 10.1 | 8 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 5.3 |
| 1st serve % | 81.6% | 74.8% |
| Break % | 37.3% | 44.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 24.5 · -0.8
Over 24.5: 44% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 56% · 1.83
H2H · Brandon Nakashima 0 – 3 Daniil Medvedev (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brandon Nakashima 0–3 Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/26 ATP Brisbane | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/04/25 ATP Madrid | 1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 11/03/23 ATP Indian Wells | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brandon Nakashima
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 07/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 31/07 | Alex De Minaur ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/07 | Jakub Mensik ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 17-21 | L |
| 01/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Marin Cilic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 17/06 | Terence Atmane ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/06 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Marin Cilic ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev?
Our model gives 50% to Brandon Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.