Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 18/08, 17:00
Prediction: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges
Team pages: Andrey Rublev · Nuno Borges
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrey Rublev
Nuno Borges
Estimated games
24.9Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Andrey Rublev
7-3 (W-L)
Nuno Borges
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Andrey Rublev
5–0
Nuno Borges
(5 last)
- 29 May3-0 21-17W
- 06 Apr2-1 13-11W
- 09 Jan2-0 12-7W
- 19 Feb2-0 12-7W
- 21 Oct2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrey Rublev 1579 · Nuno Borges 1501
| Andrey Rublev | Nuno Borges | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrey Rublev (rating 1579 vs 1501).
- Head-to-head: Andrey Rublev 5–0 Nuno Borges (5).
- Note: Andrey Rublev makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Andrey Rublev | Nuno Borges | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 83% (6) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.1 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.5-12.2 | 13.1-11 |
| Aces | 9.6 | 8.4 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 76.8% | 80.9% |
| Break % | 35.6% | 39.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.4
Over 23.5: 59% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 41% · 1.80
H2H · Andrey Rublev 5 – 0 Nuno Borges (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Andrey Rublev 5–0 Nuno Borges
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/26 French Open | 3-0 | 21-17 | W |
| 06/04/26 ATP Monte Carlo | 2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 09/01/26 ATP Hong Kong | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/02/25 ATP Doha | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/10/24 ATP Basel | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrey Rublev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 23/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/07 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
| 16/06 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Nuno Borges
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/08 | Thanasi Kokkinakis ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 08/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/08 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 22/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Orlando Luz ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges?
Our model gives 62% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.