Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 18/08, 17:00
Prediction: Michael Zheng vs Lorenzo Musetti
Team pages: Michael Zheng · Lorenzo Musetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Michael Zheng
Lorenzo Musetti
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Michael Zheng
4-6 (W-L)
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Michael Zheng 1562 · Lorenzo Musetti 1527
| Michael Zheng | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 38% | 62% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Michael Zheng makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Michael Zheng | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-11.4 | 10.8-10.3 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 4 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 75.7% | 67.5% |
| Break % | 43.5% | 34% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1.2
Over 23.5: 41% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 59% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Michael Zheng
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Ugo Humbert ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Trevor Svajda ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 12/08 | Moez Echargui ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/08 | Kei Nishikori ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/07 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 10-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Martin Landaluce ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 12/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/05 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/04 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/04 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Michael Zheng vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Our model gives 54% to Lorenzo Musetti, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.