Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 17/08, 16:00
Prediction: Arthur Fery vs Alex De Minaur
Team pages: Arthur Fery · Alex De Minaur
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Fery
Alex De Minaur
Estimated games
29.1Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Fery
4-6 (W-L)
Alex De Minaur
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Fery 1562 · Alex De Minaur 1549
| Arthur Fery | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Alex De Minaur makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Arthur Fery | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (9) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-1.5 | 1.8-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.4-17.3 | 15.2-12.1 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.5% | 72.2% |
| Break % | 52.8% | 44.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
29.1 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +8.6
Over 20.5: 94% · 1.90
Under 20.5: 6% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Fery
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | James Duckworth ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 10/07 | Alexander Zverev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 08/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 06/07 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 27-27 | W |
| 04/07 | Zizou Bergs Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 25-29 | W |
| 02/07 | Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-19 | W |
| 30/06 | Damir Dzumhur Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 21-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 19/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Quentin Halys ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 06/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 05/08 | James Duckworth ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 06/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 04/07 | Zachary Svajda Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Adrian Mannarino Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Roman Andres Burruchaga Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Fery vs Alex De Minaur?
Our model gives 65% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.