Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 17/08, 16:00
Prediction: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo
Team pages: Rafael Jodar · Alejandro Tabilo
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Jodar
Alejandro Tabilo
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Jodar
5-5 (W-L)
Alejandro Tabilo
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Rafael Jodar
1–1
Alejandro Tabilo
(2 last)
- 02 Aug2-1 18-15W
- 06 Mar0-2 3-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1604 · Alejandro Tabilo 1530
| Rafael Jodar | Alejandro Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rafael Jodar (rating 1604 vs 1530).
- Rafael Jodar is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Alejandro Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-10.5 | 13.7-14.1 |
| Aces | 3 | 7 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 72.8% | 75.7% |
| Break % | 47.2% | 37.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.8
Over 21.5: 69% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 31% · 1.83
H2H · Rafael Jodar 1 – 1 Alejandro Tabilo (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rafael Jodar 1–1 Alejandro Tabilo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 ATP Washington | 2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 06/03/26 ATP Indian Wells | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 13/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Corentin Moutet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 03/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 01/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 30/07 | Kei Nishikori ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Alejandro Tabilo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 01/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 30/07 | Terence Atmane ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/07 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 22/07 | Tiago Torres ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Lautaro Midon ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 30/06 | Kamil Majchrzak Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo?
Our model gives 67% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.