Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 17/08, 16:00
Prediction: Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Team pages: Tommy Paul · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Prediction summary
Winner
Tommy Paul
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Estimated games
25Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tommy Paul
8-2 (W-L)
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tommy Paul
1–0
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
(1 last)
- 02 Apr2-1 15-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tommy Paul 1521 · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 1525
| Tommy Paul | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 51.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Tommy Paul 1–0 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (1).
Statistics
| Tommy Paul | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-12.2 | 12.6-11.4 |
| Aces | 7.5 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 74.3% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 51.4% | 46.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3.5
Over 21.5: 73% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 27% · 1.80
H2H · Tommy Paul 1 – 0 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tommy Paul 1–0 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/26 ATP Houston | 2-1 | 15-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tommy Paul
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 03/07 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 01/07 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 29/06 | Alexandre Muller Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 21/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 20/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/08 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Kilian Feldbausch ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 17/07 | Stefano Travaglia ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 14/07 | Miguel Damas ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 21-24 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo?
Our model gives 65% to Tommy Paul, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.