Tennis · Challenger Astana · 16/08, 10:00
Prediction: Mohamed Aziz Dougaz vs Hayato Matsuoka
Team pages: Mohamed Aziz Dougaz · Hayato Matsuoka
Prediction summary
Winner
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Hayato Matsuoka
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
7-3 (W-L)
Hayato Matsuoka
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz 1593 · Hayato Matsuoka 1572
| Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Mohamed Aziz Dougaz dominates on serve: 8.8 aces and 42.3% break avg.
Statistics
| Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-10.5 | 11.9-9.6 |
| Aces | 8.8 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 78.6% | 75.6% |
| Break % | 42.3% | 40% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1.2
Over 23.5: 41% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 59% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 14/08 | Jie Cui Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/08 | Alec Deckers Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Mirza Basic Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/08 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/08 | Alan Bojarski Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 25/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Tuncay Duran M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Hayato Matsuoka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Khumoyun Sultanov Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 14/08 | Fajing Sun Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/08 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | James Trotter Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mohamed Aziz Dougaz vs Hayato Matsuoka?
Our model gives 54% to Hayato Matsuoka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.