Tennis · Challenger Astana · 14/08, 07:00
Prediction: Jie Cui vs Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Team pages: Jie Cui · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Prediction summary
Winner
Jie Cui
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Estimated games
22.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jie Cui
7-3 (W-L)
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jie Cui 1501 · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz 1582
| Jie Cui | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mohamed Aziz Dougaz (rating 1501 vs 1582).
- Mohamed Aziz Dougaz dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 43.5% break avg.
- Mohamed Aziz Dougaz is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Jie Cui | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-11.4 | 13-8.7 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 8.2 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 80.4% |
| Break % | 53% | 43.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 47% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 53% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jie Cui
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Petr Bar Biryukov Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Aziz Ouakaa Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 14/07 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/07 | Matthew Forbes M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/06 | Trevor Svajda Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Dmitry Popko M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 16/06 | Alejandro Jacome Jaramillo M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/06 | Duncan Chan M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 22/05 | Qian Sun M15 Luan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/08 | Alec Deckers Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Mirza Basic Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/08 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/08 | Alan Bojarski Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 25/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Tuncay Duran M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/07 | Nicolas Robert M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/07 | Felipe Virgili Berini M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jie Cui vs Mohamed Aziz Dougaz?
Our model gives 62% to Mohamed Aziz Dougaz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.