Tennis · Challenger Astana · 13/08, 07:00
Prediction: Fajing Sun vs Hayato Matsuoka
Team pages: Fajing Sun · Hayato Matsuoka
Prediction summary
Winner
Fajing Sun
Hayato Matsuoka
Estimated games
20.5Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Fajing Sun
2-8 (W-L)
Hayato Matsuoka
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Fajing Sun
2–0
Hayato Matsuoka
(2 last)
- 06 Jan2-1 14-10W
- 31 Oct2-1 15-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fajing Sun 1487 · Hayato Matsuoka 1520
| Fajing Sun | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Hayato Matsuoka is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Fajing Sun 2–0 Hayato Matsuoka (2).
Statistics
| Fajing Sun | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.6 | 1.3-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.9-11.6 | 11-9.2 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.5% | 74.6% |
| Break % | 36.3% | 34.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5 · Bet365 line 21.5 · -1
Over 21.5: 43% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 57% · 1.83
H2H · Fajing Sun 2 – 0 Hayato Matsuoka (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fajing Sun 2–0 Hayato Matsuoka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/26 Challenger Nonthaburi | 2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 31/10/25 ITF M25 Qian Daohu | 2-1 | 15-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fajing Sun
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Semen Pankin Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 11/08 | Zangar Nurlanuly Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 05/08 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Semen Pankin Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Mees Rottgering Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Ozan Baris Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Jay Friend Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Hayato Matsuoka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/08 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | James Trotter Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Colton Smith Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fajing Sun vs Hayato Matsuoka?
Our model gives 59% to Hayato Matsuoka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.