Tennis · Challenger Astana · 15/08, 09:30
Prediction: Mohamed Aziz Dougaz vs Sergey Fomin
Team pages: Mohamed Aziz Dougaz · Sergey Fomin
Prediction summary
Winner
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Sergey Fomin
Estimated games
22Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
8-2 (W-L)
Sergey Fomin
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz 1586 · Sergey Fomin 1516
| Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | Sergey Fomin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mohamed Aziz Dougaz (rating 1586 vs 1516).
- Mohamed Aziz Dougaz dominates on serve: 8.3 aces and 42.2% break avg.
- Sergey Fomin dominates on serve: 6 aces and 45% break avg.
- Mohamed Aziz Dougaz is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Sergey Fomin makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | Sergey Fomin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-9.5 | 11.7-10.6 |
| Aces | 8.3 | 6 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 79.5% | 72.1% |
| Break % | 42.2% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -0.5
Over 22.5: 47% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 53% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Jie Cui Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/08 | Alec Deckers Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Mirza Basic Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/08 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/08 | Alan Bojarski Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 25/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Tuncay Duran M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/07 | Nicolas Robert M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Sergey Fomin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/08 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/07 | Giuseppe La Vela Challenger Bonn · Clay |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Yanki Erel Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Alberto Lim Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Bill Chan Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/07 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Liege · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 29/06 | Olle Wallin Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 28/06 | Mircea-Alexandru Jecan Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mohamed Aziz Dougaz vs Sergey Fomin?
Our model gives 59% to Mohamed Aziz Dougaz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.