Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 16:00
Prediction: Brandon Nakashima vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
Team pages: Brandon Nakashima · Aleksandar Kovacevic
Prediction summary
Winner
Brandon Nakashima
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Brandon Nakashima
7-3 (W-L)
Aleksandar Kovacevic
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Brandon Nakashima
1–0
Aleksandar Kovacevic
(1 last)
- 10 Jan2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brandon Nakashima 1612 · Aleksandar Kovacevic 1428
| Brandon Nakashima | Aleksandar Kovacevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 26% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brandon Nakashima (rating 1612 vs 1428).
- Brandon Nakashima dominates on serve: 9.6 aces and 40.6% break avg.
- Brandon Nakashima is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Brandon Nakashima 1–0 Aleksandar Kovacevic (1).
- Note: Aleksandar Kovacevic makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Brandon Nakashima | Aleksandar Kovacevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 0.7-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-11 | 11-15.5 |
| Aces | 9.6 | 8.3 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 81.6% | 73.4% |
| Break % | 40.6% | 17.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.5
Over 21.5: 67% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 33% · 2.00
H2H · Brandon Nakashima 1 – 0 Aleksandar Kovacevic (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brandon Nakashima 1–0 Aleksandar Kovacevic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/26 ATP Brisbane | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brandon Nakashima
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 07/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 31/07 | Alex De Minaur ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/07 | Jakub Mensik ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 28/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Aleksandar Kovacevic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Karen Khachanov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 04/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 28/07 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Botic Van De Zandschulp Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
| 23/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 14/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Michael Mmoh ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 09/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 25/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 5-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brandon Nakashima vs Aleksandar Kovacevic?
Our model gives 73% to Brandon Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.