Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 16:00
Prediction: Ben Shelton vs Jaime Faria
Team pages: Ben Shelton · Jaime Faria
Prediction summary
Winner
Ben Shelton
Jaime Faria
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ben Shelton
8-2 (W-L)
Jaime Faria
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ben Shelton 1625 · Jaime Faria 1533
| Ben Shelton | Jaime Faria | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ben Shelton (rating 1625 vs 1533).
- Ben Shelton dominates on serve: 6.8 aces and 46.9% break avg.
- Jaime Faria dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 47.2% break avg.
- Note: Jaime Faria makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Ben Shelton | Jaime Faria | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 89% (9) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.7 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.9-11.3 | 12.6-11.3 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 7.5 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 80% | 73.2% |
| Break % | 46.9% | 47.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.8
Over 21.5: 69% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 31% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ben Shelton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 31/07 | Ugo Humbert ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 28/07 | Martin Damm ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 30/06 | Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 25-28 | L |
Jaime Faria
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Yibing Wu ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 23/07 | Gonzalo Bueno ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/07 | Casper Ruud ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 14/07 | Stan Wawrinka ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ben Shelton vs Jaime Faria?
Our model gives 75% to Ben Shelton, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.