Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 16:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Sonego vs Frances Tiafoe
Team pages: Lorenzo Sonego · Frances Tiafoe
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Sonego
Frances Tiafoe
Estimated games
29.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Sonego
7-3 (W-L)
Frances Tiafoe
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lorenzo Sonego
3–1
Frances Tiafoe
(4 last)
- 07 Oct2-1 14-11W
- 28 Mar2-0 12-7W
- 24 Nov2-0 13-9W
- 31 Oct0-2 8-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Sonego 1500 · Frances Tiafoe 1590
| Lorenzo Sonego | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 30% | 70% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frances Tiafoe (rating 1500 vs 1590).
- Lorenzo Sonego dominates on serve: 9.6 aces and 41.4% break avg.
- Frances Tiafoe dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 48.6% break avg.
- Frances Tiafoe is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Lorenzo Sonego 3–1 Frances Tiafoe (4).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Sonego | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (6) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.5 | 2.1-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.1-15.9 | 16.9-13.1 |
| Aces | 9.6 | 7.7 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 79.5% |
| Break % | 41.4% | 48.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
29.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +6.8
Over 22.5: 88% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 12% · 1.80
H2H · Lorenzo Sonego 3 – 1 Frances Tiafoe (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorenzo Sonego 3–1 Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/23 ATP Shanghai | 2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 28/03/23 ATP Miami | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/11/22 Davis Cup | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/10/22 ATP Paris | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Sonego
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Joel Schwaerzler ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 02/07 | Gabriel Diallo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 30-27 | W |
| 30/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
| 23/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 21/06 | Mariano Navone ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 28/07 | Terence Atmane ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 04/07 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 02/07 | Jan Choinski Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 01/07 | Terence Atmane Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 21/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Sonego vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model gives 67% to Frances Tiafoe, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.