Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 16:00
Prediction: Adam Walton vs Ignacio Buse
Team pages: Adam Walton · Ignacio Buse
Prediction summary
Winner
Adam Walton
Ignacio Buse
Estimated games
24.9Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adam Walton
8-2 (W-L)
Ignacio Buse
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adam Walton 1528 · Ignacio Buse 1470
| Adam Walton | Ignacio Buse | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adam Walton (rating 1528 vs 1470).
Statistics
| Adam Walton | Ignacio Buse | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 75% (4) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-12.8 | 10.7-12.9 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.7% | 65.4% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 47.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.4
Over 23.5: 59% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 41% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adam Walton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Justin Boulais ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 29/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 24/07 | Michael Zheng Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 22/07 | Thanasi Kokkinakis Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 12/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 11/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Ignacio Buse
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Kilian Feldbausch ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 20/07 | Vit Kopriva ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 14/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Jenson Brooksby Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 29/06 | Emilio Nava Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 24/06 | Vit Kopriva ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/06 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adam Walton vs Ignacio Buse?
Our model gives 58% to Adam Walton, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.