Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 16:00
Prediction: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniil Medvedev
Team pages: Marco Trungelliti · Daniil Medvedev
Prediction summary
Winner
Marco Trungelliti
Daniil Medvedev
Estimated games
26.5Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marco Trungelliti
4-6 (W-L)
Daniil Medvedev
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marco Trungelliti
1–0
Daniil Medvedev
(1 last)
- 07 Jul2-0 13-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marco Trungelliti 1508 · Daniil Medvedev 1533
| Marco Trungelliti | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Daniil Medvedev dominates on serve: 8.5 aces and 41.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Marco Trungelliti 1–0 Daniil Medvedev (1).
- Note: Marco Trungelliti makes many double faults (6.4/match).
- Note: Daniil Medvedev makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Marco Trungelliti | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 0% (2) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.5-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.4-13.6 | 14.4-12.7 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 8.5 |
| Double faults | 6.4 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 43.8% | 41.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.5 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +7
Over 19.5: 89% · 1.80
Under 19.5: 11% · 1.90
H2H · Marco Trungelliti 1 – 0 Daniil Medvedev (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marco Trungelliti 1–0 Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/16 Challenger Todi | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marco Trungelliti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/08 | Kei Nishikori ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 12/08 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 22/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Martin Damm Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 22/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 17-21 | L |
| 01/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Marin Cilic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 17/06 | Terence Atmane ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/06 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Marin Cilic ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 12/06 | Thijs Boogaard ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marco Trungelliti vs Daniil Medvedev?
Our model gives 70% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.