Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 16:00
Prediction: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Zizou Bergs
Team pages: Daniel Merida Aguilar · Zizou Bergs
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Zizou Bergs
Estimated games
24.5Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Merida Aguilar
7-3 (W-L)
Zizou Bergs
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1580 · Zizou Bergs 1552
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Zizou Bergs | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Zizou Bergs makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Zizou Bergs | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-9.1 | 16.1-13.6 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 8.7 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 5.5 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 77% |
| Break % | 48.2% | 37.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1
Over 23.5: 57% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 43% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Ugo Humbert ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Liam Draxl ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 17/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Zizou Bergs
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 27/07 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 29-25 | L |
| 02/07 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 30/06 | Ugo Humbert Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-22 | W |
| 28/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 26/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 25/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Jaume Munar ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Zizou Bergs?
Our model gives 53% to Daniel Merida Aguilar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.