Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 16:00
Prediction: Nuno Borges vs Francisco Cerundolo
Team pages: Nuno Borges · Francisco Cerundolo
Prediction summary
Winner
Nuno Borges
Francisco Cerundolo
Estimated games
24.6Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nuno Borges
6-4 (W-L)
Francisco Cerundolo
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nuno Borges
1–1
Francisco Cerundolo
(2 last)
- 30 Jun3-1 23-15W
- 05 Jul1-3 17-23L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nuno Borges 1560 · Francisco Cerundolo 1509
| Nuno Borges | Francisco Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nuno Borges (rating 1560 vs 1509).
Statistics
| Nuno Borges | Francisco Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.6-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-10.8 | 15-14.7 |
| Aces | 8.5 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 79.4% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 39.8% | 31.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.1
Over 23.5: 58% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 42% · 1.80
H2H · Nuno Borges 1 – 1 Francisco Cerundolo (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nuno Borges 1–1 Francisco Cerundolo
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/25 Wimbledon | 3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 05/07/23 Wimbledon | 1-3 | 17-23 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nuno Borges
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Thanasi Kokkinakis ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 08/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/08 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 22/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Orlando Luz ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Moise Kouame ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Francisco Cerundolo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Jaume Munar Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 21/06 | Tommy Paul ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 19/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 30/05 | Zachary Svajda French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 22-25 | L |
| 28/05 | Hugo Gaston French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 20-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nuno Borges vs Francisco Cerundolo?
Our model gives 58% to Nuno Borges, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.