Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 17:00

Prediction: Joao Fonseca vs Botic Van De Zandschulp

Team pages: Joao Fonseca · Botic Van De Zandschulp

Prediction summary

Winner

60% 40%

Joao Fonseca Botic Van De Zandschulp

Estimated games

26.2Bet365 line 21.5

Recent form · 10 last

Joao Fonseca 5-5 (W-L)

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Botic Van De Zandschulp 6-4 (W-L)

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Head-to-head

Joao Fonseca 1–1 Botic Van De Zandschulp (2 last)

14 Oct0-2 11-14L
12 Sept2-0 13-10W

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Joao Fonseca 1513 · Botic Van De Zandschulp 1547

	Joao Fonseca	Botic Van De Zandschulp
Our model	45%	55%
Market	73%	27%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Botic Van De Zandschulp dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 54.2% break avg.
Note: Botic Van De Zandschulp makes many double faults (5.2/match).

Statistics

	Joao Fonseca	Botic Van De Zandschulp
Win %	60%	60%
Win % · Hard	67% (3)	80% (5)
Sets (G-P)	1.6-1.3	1.6-1.2
Games (G-P)	15.3-15	14.6-13.7
Aces	6.4	6.7
Double faults	1.8	5.2
1st serve %	66.1%	70.6%
Break %	39.5%	54.2%

Estimated total games (ours) 26.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +4.7

Over 21.5: 80% · 1.83 Under 21.5: 20% · 1.83

H2H · Joao Fonseca 1 – 1 Botic Van De Zandschulp (2)

Odds Bet365

11.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)2.00

2 (+4.5)1.72

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.5%

Time*	1	2
00:53 +48’	1.30	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Joao Fonseca 1–1 Botic Van De Zandschulp

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
14/10/25 ATP Brussels	0-2	11-14	L
12/09/24 Davis Cup	2-0	13-10	W

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Joao Fonseca

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
10/08	Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard	0-2	9-13	L
08/08	Casper Ruud ATP Montreal · Hard	2-0	13-9	W
05/08	Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Montreal · Hard	2-0	14-11	W
03/07	Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass	0-3	9-18	L
01/07	Jesper De Jong Wimbledon · Grass	3-0	19-10	W
29/06	Roberto Bautista-Agut Wimbledon · Grass	3-0	19-13	W
16/06	Yannick Hanfmann ATP Halle · Grass	0-2	4-12	L
02/06	Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay	0-3	13-19	L
31/05	Casper Ruud French Open · Clay	3-1	25-20	W
29/05	Novak Djokovic French Open · Clay	3-2	28-25	W

Botic Van De Zandschulp

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
14/08	Alexander Shevchenko ATP Cincinnati · Hard	2-0	12-8	W
10/08	Jakub Mensik ATP Montreal · Hard	0-2	9-13	L
07/08	Hubert Hurkacz ATP Montreal · Hard	2-1	17-17	W
06/08	Daniil Medvedev ATP Montreal · Hard	2-0	13-9	W
04/08	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Montreal · Hard	2-1	15-11	W
21/07	Jaime Faria ATP Estoril · Clay	0-2	7-12	L
15/07	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Bastad · Clay	1-2	15-17	L
14/07	Taro Daniel ATP Bastad · Clay	2-0	13-10	W
01/07	Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass	2-3	21-26	L
29/06	Aleksandar Kovacevic Wimbledon · Grass	3-1	24-14	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Joao Fonseca vs Botic Van De Zandschulp?

Our model gives 60% to Joao Fonseca, using surface Elo on hard.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.