Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 17:00

Prediction: Arthur Fery vs James Duckworth

Team pages: Arthur Fery · James Duckworth

Prediction summary

Winner

61% 39%

Arthur Fery James Duckworth

Estimated games

28.7Bet365 line 22.5

Recent form · 10 last

Arthur Fery 4-6 (W-L)

WLWLLLLWWL

James Duckworth 4-6 (W-L)

WLLWLLLWLW

Head-to-head

Arthur Fery 0–2 James Duckworth (2 last)

16 May0-2 10-14L
10 Apr1-2 11-16L

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arthur Fery 1567 · James Duckworth 1470

	Arthur Fery	James Duckworth
Our model	64%	36%
Market	59%	41%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Fery (rating 1567 vs 1470).
Arthur Fery is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Head-to-head: Arthur Fery 0–2 James Duckworth (2).

Statistics

	Arthur Fery	James Duckworth
Win %	70%	40%
Win % · Grass	70% (10)	20% (5)
Sets (G-P)	2-1.4	1.1-1.5
Games (G-P)	18.2-16.7	13-13.8
Aces	4.9	7.4
Double faults	2.2	3.9
1st serve %	70.8%	77.6%
Break %	49.4%	30.5%

Estimated total games (ours) 28.7 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +6.2

Over 22.5: 86% · 1.80 Under 22.5: 14% · 1.90

H2H · Arthur Fery 0 – 2 James Duckworth (2)

Odds Bet365

11.61

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)2.00

2 (+2.5)1.72

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.4%

Time*	1	2
01:24 +16’	1.61	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arthur Fery 0–2 James Duckworth

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
16/05/24 Challenger Taipei	0-2	10-14	L
10/04/24 Challenger Busan	1-2	11-16	L

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arthur Fery

WWWWL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
10/07	Alexander Zverev Wimbledon · Grass	0-3	12-19	L
08/07	Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass	3-0	19-10	W
06/07	Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass	3-2	27-27	W
04/07	Zizou Bergs Wimbledon · Grass	3-2	25-29	W
02/07	Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass	3-1	24-19	W
30/06	Damir Dzumhur Wimbledon · Grass	3-1	21-11	W
24/06	Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Eastbourne · Grass	0-2	8-13	L
23/06	Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Eastbourne · Grass	2-1	17-13	W
19/06	Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass	1-2	16-16	L
17/06	Adrian Mannarino ATP Queens · Grass	2-0	13-10	W

James Duckworth

WLWLW

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
14/08	Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard	2-0	14-11	W
05/08	Alex De Minaur ATP Montreal · Hard	0-2	8-13	L
03/08	Christopher O'Connell ATP Montreal · Hard	2-0	12-4	W
30/07	Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard	0-2	8-12	L
29/07	Aidan Mayo ATP Los Cabos · Hard	2-1	16-13	W
02/07	Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass	1-3	19-23	L
30/06	Tallon Griekspoor Wimbledon · Grass	3-1	23-19	W
20/06	Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass	0-2	8-12	L
13/06	Aleksandar Vukic ATP Queens · Grass	0-2	5-12	L
11/06	Jiri Lehecka ATP Stuttgart · Grass	1-2	17-19	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arthur Fery vs James Duckworth?

Our model gives 61% to Arthur Fery, using surface Elo on grass.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.