Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 17:00
Prediction: Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen
Team pages: Taylor Fritz · Alex Michelsen
Prediction summary
Winner
Taylor Fritz
Alex Michelsen
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Taylor Fritz
7-3 (W-L)
Alex Michelsen
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Taylor Fritz
1–2
Alex Michelsen
(3 last)
- 31 Jul2-1 16-13W
- 09 Mar0-2 10-13L
- 22 May1-2 15-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Taylor Fritz 1583 · Alex Michelsen 1596
| Taylor Fritz | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Taylor Fritz dominates on serve: 13.2 aces and 41.1% break avg.
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 47% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Taylor Fritz 1–2 Alex Michelsen (3).
Statistics
| Taylor Fritz | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.8 | 1.8-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.7-12.2 | 13.3-10.3 |
| Aces | 13.2 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 80.2% | 76.4% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 47% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +0.9
Over 23.5: 57% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 43% · 1.80
H2H · Taylor Fritz 1 – 2 Alex Michelsen (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Taylor Fritz 1–2 Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/26 ATP Washington | 2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 09/03/26 ATP Indian Wells | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/05/24 ATP Geneva | 1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Taylor Fritz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 31/07 | Alex Michelsen ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/07 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/07 | Zizou Bergs ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Alexander Zverev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 06/07 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Lorenzo Sonego Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 02/07 | Patrick Kypson Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Jesper De Jong ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 05/08 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/07 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Mackenzie McDonald ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen?
Our model gives 54% to Taylor Fritz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.