Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 17:00
Prediction: Learner Tien vs Sebastian Baez
Team pages: Learner Tien · Sebastian Baez
Prediction summary
Winner
Learner Tien
Sebastian Baez
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Learner Tien
8-2 (W-L)
Sebastian Baez
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Learner Tien 1537 · Sebastian Baez 1527
| Learner Tien | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Learner Tien | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.5-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-12.1 | 12.6-13.2 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 68.5% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 31.4% | 41.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.6
Over 21.5: 68% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 32% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Learner Tien
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/08 | Gael Monfils ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 28/07 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Marton Fucsovics Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 29/06 | Dalibor Svrcina Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 15/06 | Max Schoenhaus ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Sebastian Baez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 21/07 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Jesper De Jong ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Max Dahlin ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 29/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 24-26 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Learner Tien vs Sebastian Baez?
Our model gives 62% to Learner Tien, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.