Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 17:00
Prediction: Andrey Rublev vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Team pages: Andrey Rublev · Pablo Carreno Busta
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrey Rublev
Pablo Carreno Busta
Estimated games
27.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Andrey Rublev
6-4 (W-L)
Pablo Carreno Busta
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Andrey Rublev
4–0
Pablo Carreno Busta
(4 last)
- 27 Sept2-1 16-10W
- 27 Jul2-1 17-12W
- 29 Dec2-0 12-6W
- 27 Mar2-1 13-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrey Rublev 1531 · Pablo Carreno Busta 1515
| Andrey Rublev | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Andrey Rublev 4–0 Pablo Carreno Busta (4).
- Note: Andrey Rublev makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Andrey Rublev | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.4 | 1.9-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.6-14 | 15.7-14.3 |
| Aces | 9.8 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 75.3% | 70.6% |
| Break % | 28.9% | 40.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4.8
Over 22.5: 80% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 20% · 1.83
H2H · Andrey Rublev 4 – 0 Pablo Carreno Busta (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Andrey Rublev 4–0 Pablo Carreno Busta
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/24 ATP Beijing | 2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 27/07/19 ATP Hamburg | 2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 29/12/17 Mubadala World Tennis Championship | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/03/15 ATP Miami | 2-1 | 13-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrey Rublev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 23/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/07 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
| 16/06 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 24-25 | L |
Pablo Carreno Busta
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Tomas Machac ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 23/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 14/07 | Matej Dodig ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-22 | L |
| 31/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 17-26 | L |
| 29/05 | Thiago Agustin Tirante French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-21 | W |
| 25/05 | Jiri Lehecka French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrey Rublev vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Our model gives 59% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.