Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 17:00
Prediction: Daniel Altmaier vs Lorenzo Musetti
Team pages: Daniel Altmaier · Lorenzo Musetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Altmaier
Lorenzo Musetti
Estimated games
23.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Altmaier
3-7 (W-L)
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniel Altmaier
1–2
Lorenzo Musetti
(3 last)
- 13 Aug1-2 14-18L
- 04 Sept2-0 13-8W
- 24 Aug0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Altmaier 1509 · Lorenzo Musetti 1517
| Daniel Altmaier | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Daniel Altmaier 1–2 Lorenzo Musetti (3).
Statistics
| Daniel Altmaier | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-12.6 | 10.9-10.7 |
| Aces | 8.1 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 71.1% | 65.9% |
| Break % | 28.4% | 30.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.6
Over 21.5: 61% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 39% · 1.83
H2H · Daniel Altmaier 1 – 2 Lorenzo Musetti (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniel Altmaier 1–2 Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/22 ATP Cincinnati | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 04/09/20 Challenger Cordenons | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/08/20 Challenger Trieste | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Altmaier
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Coleman Wong ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 22/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Hugo Gaston ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Alex Molcan Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 17-22 | L |
| 23/06 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 12/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/05 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/04 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/04 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/04 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Altmaier vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Our model gives 66% to Lorenzo Musetti, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.