Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 17:00
Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Felix Auger Aliassime
Team pages: Stefanos Tsitsipas · Felix Auger Aliassime
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Felix Auger Aliassime
Estimated games
28.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Stefanos Tsitsipas
8-2 (W-L)
Felix Auger Aliassime
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Stefanos Tsitsipas
7–3
Felix Auger Aliassime
(10 last)
- 19 Jul0-2 9-13L
- 01 Mar2-0 12-6W
- 01 Nov2-0 13-9W
- 13 Feb0-2 6-12L
- 21 Aug2-1 17-10W
- 23 Apr2-0 12-6W
- 19 Mar2-1 17-14W
- 23 Feb2-0 12-7W
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1565 · Felix Auger Aliassime 1562
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Felix Auger Aliassime dominates on serve: 16.4 aces and 40.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Stefanos Tsitsipas 7–3 Felix Auger Aliassime (10).
Statistics
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | – | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 2.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.1-11.9 | 18.5-14.9 |
| Aces | 6 | 16.4 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 77.6% | 82.2% |
| Break % | 35.8% | 40.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +5.8
Over 22.5: 84% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 16% · 1.90
H2H · Stefanos Tsitsipas 7 – 3 Felix Auger Aliassime (10)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stefanos Tsitsipas 7–3 Felix Auger Aliassime
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/25 Hopman Cup | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/03/25 ATP Dubai | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/11/23 ATP Paris | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/02/22 ATP Rotterdam | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/08/21 ATP Cincinnati | 2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 23/04/21 ATP Barcelona | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/03/21 ATP Acapulco | 2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 23/02/20 ATP Marseille | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Martin Damm ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Keegan Rice ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Alex De Minaur ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 19/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 18/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 16/07 | Jerome Kym ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 14/07 | Ignacio Buse ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Felix Auger Aliassime
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 28-29 | L |
| 05/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-24 | W |
| 03/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Dino Prizmic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Learner Tien ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 15/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Felix Auger Aliassime?
Our model gives 55% to Felix Auger Aliassime, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.